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David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt The New York Times, in D.C.

Now: editor, The Upshot, for NYT. Then: DC bureau chief, Here's the Deal e-book, Pulitzer for commentary, math major. Still: Jim Rice, ma la, Art Blakey

977 Following   56,381 Followers   12,105 Tweets

Join Twitter 7/18/10

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Congrats to @CrowleyTIME on his new gig at Politico -- and to @sbg1 on landing him.Are Democrats doing a better job of turning out voters in 2014? Some reason for skepticism, @Nate_Cohn: http://t.co/1MqpGQY8o5@Bettermarkets Age-adjusted epop strikes me as more interesting than straight participation rate. cc @JustinWolfersIt's not just N.Y., D.C. & S.F. Young college grads are also flocking to Houston, Nashville & Baltimore. @clairecm: http://t.co/BuOid7bjj8@JeffreyGoldberg UE rate mostly flat in Benghazi, though small sample size offers reason to take local-area rates with a grain of salt.The unemployment rate has fallen more since 2012 than in any midterm cycle since World War II. http://t.co/fb8dnL1xcn http://t.co/Tqapv7L41WHow people in 7 Muslim-majority countries say women should dress http://t.co/ZiAaBAMgJQ http://t.co/BiLL6n1kr1
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@ebbitt Don't expect great returns in coming years.@DLeonhardt @jmartNYT In order of coolness of names: Unitas, Tittle, Slingin' Sammy, Layne, Marino, Favre, Manning.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@3rdMoment Yes, I agree. Of course, that's what people always argue when it's high. 1920s, 1960s, 1990s, 2006-7...@OneTopQuark Fair point, although the historical r'ship between rates and stock performance is weak.@tedfrank Yes, which is a reason not to expect a big drop. At same time, historical r'ship between rates and performance is weak.When market opens Monday, the S&P 500 long-term P/E will be higher than it ever was in 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s or 80s. http://t.co/RPO9TK01in@overlayered Being an R will help him.The QBs who've held the TD record since World War II: Manning Favre Marino Tarkenton Unitas Tittle Layne Baugh http://t.co/1b2gdzHWRrPeyton Manning is the 10th quarterback since 1930 to hold the touchdown record. http://t.co/KOXrIu016G http://t.co/qOfRT7QuXg@redletterdave Thanks. Credit to its creators: @driven_by_data and @KevinQPeyton Manning is going to hold the touchdown record for a long time. http://t.co/1b2gdzHWRr http://t.co/H44LD57qDT@derprevere Thanks a lot.
10/20
2014
@toddkeithley @derprevere @Nate_Cohn An example of using 140 characters poorly, on my part. Better: most intriguing uncertainty.The history of passing touchdowns, in one sweet graphic: http://t.co/B7F1P2taCZ Find your favorite QB...@butifulabsurdt Thanks so much.2014 looks like the most intriguing election in a decade, says @Nate_Cohn: http://t.co/6iISQ4jLb2
10/19
2014
@KennethBaer @RonaldKlain The rare positive Vietnam analogy.@MarkMazzettiNYT I can understand that. I mean, who really would believe that the Great Mo would blow two saves in less than 24 hours?@kairyssdal Happy anniversary!To think of the Yankee broadcasters' smugness at this moment... RT @RedSox: 10 years ago today. #TheSteal 10/17/04 http://t.co/ACfyEKe3EB@felixsalmon I basically agree, though I'm not sure about "no."@stephengandel @felixsalmon Not just extremes. Avg return, eg, 20-25: 1.6%. 15 to 20: 27.7%. Correl is -.4 for all data, -.25 for 10<PE<25."A packed rally ... had the feel of Gillespie momentum." Kind of like Mittmentum and Walker-recall momentum. http://t.co/dVIHMqpUEr@ronlieber @crampell Should it be "Is sex for only rich people"?The great Joe Louis goes to Vegas, and @BeschlossDC takes us there: http://t.co/rNJ91JEO8q http://t.co/rPMT3xi0vo@chadmhorner ... overweighting very recent past.@chadmhorner But people often say "The last decade was misleading." Was true in 1920s, 1960s, 1990s etc. Still seems better than...Janet Yellen just gave a speech that Ben Bernanke would not have given. @Neil_Irwin: http://t.co/uNkSMaQvo8Answering @felixsalmon's good question about stock valuations and returns: http://t.co/BractUsj36 http://t.co/y0uccyKWh7How repeated cries of distress in the WSJ helped the GOP close the 2014 fundraising gap: http://t.co/EMoWLsEmDc
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe secret to understanding the stock market? Profit-taking, of course. @jbarro explains: http://t.co/WvqMdwvRu9
10/17
2014
If the Royals lose the World Series, expect some silly talk about how the long rest hurt them. Remember this: http://t.co/UCIQ1JcJaZ
10/16
2014
@tlaskawy Thanks. And I can see that. As a reader, though, I prefer a number. I always wonder what number lean implies, eg.@ThePlumLineGS Thanks a lot.One reason for the market volatility: Share prices are just plain expensive relative to earnings - http://t.co/90JedofwXc @DLeonhardt
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@hsquared47 @BrendanNyhan Rs26 years ago today: "In a year that has been so improbable...the impossible has happened!" https://t.co/nfsT82DRle
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@lesliebialler thanks.@DrSvalbard thanks.@williamfleitch good point. That's why we used 3d down in the article. Same odds.@anachtomi Thanks a lot.(And, yes, that last tweet was the love child of @nytleo and @NYT4thDownBot.)The Republicans' odds of winning the Senate are akin to the odds of making a 1st down on 4th and 1. http://t.co/G4UFX00jm8@astalfort Thanks.@MilesCorak Thanks, Miles.Writing this made me grateful, again, for my 2nd-grade teacher, Mrs. Sandler. She made math matter - and made it fun. http://t.co/G4UFX00jm8@Bettermarkets @nytleo I'm all for swatting down false precision. I also think "numbers mean nothing" mistakes are more common..@nytleo says the Democrats have a 26% chance of keeping the Senate. What else happens 26% of the time? http://t.co/G4UFX00jm8Internal polls are the political version of the "I had a girlfriend at summer camp" story.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe markets are sending legitimately worrisome signals about the health of the global economy. @Neil_Irwin: http://t.co/63WzM2fpL4Baseball.The latest Silicon Valley employee benefit: egg freezing. @clairecm: http://t.co/5LSIfSkCj3
10/15
2014
Thomas Piketty is skeptical of many of his fellow economists, and they return the favor. @JustinWolfers: http://t.co/L7XXk2ccmVJean Tirole on Nobel laureate Jean Tirole: http://t.co/P7z0i7AWU3Here's the NYTBR review of this year's Man Booker Prize winning novel by Richard Flanagan: http://t.co/BId8toTF40
Retweeted by David LeonhardtThe G.O.P.'s odds of winning a Senate majority have reached a new high in The Upshot's model: 72 percent. @jshkatz: http://t.co/UYOERanI3zAnti-poverty programs can increase the weight of babies born to poor mothers RT @DLeonhardt & @amandacox Heavy babies http://t.co/yTVTJyUqhV
Retweeted by David LeonhardtBoth Grimes' answer on 2012 Obama vote and McConnell's on post-Obamacare KYnect are nonsense. One gets more coverage.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtWeb first reached the masses 20 years ago today with release of Netscape Navigator - http://t.co/FUGVZ1GZtu
Retweeted by David Leonhardt
10/14
2014
2010 headlines that don’t hold up well— Would President Obama Be Better Off If Democrats Lose Control of Congress? http://t.co/SBxKdZJfQe
Retweeted by David LeonhardtWhy Jean Tirole Won The Economics Nobel--and why he's a worthy winner http://t.co/gqtIQfGr92
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@ATuteur Yes, gestation is one of the controls.@ATuteur Check the one there now."If you just tell me you’re putting Demerol in my I.V. but don’t actually do it, I would still feel a lot better,” http://t.co/JQsKeZu3R9We all know how @CarlosLozadaWP hopes to celebrate his great new job: with a win over Florida State this weekend. http://t.co/3GCgPw9giLThe Chevy Captiva is America's rental-est car. @jbarro: http://t.co/4mTZnpJf5k http://t.co/JaL0KYIqq2@jselingo Thanks for the heads up.A regional Fed president makes the case for optimism on the economy, in an interview with @BCAppelbaum: http://t.co/26cD0ACXWoNot good. MT @jselingo: Bill Bowen: % students completing studies in 4 years fell from 58% for those born in '50s to 44% for born in '70s.@ATuteur You must be looking at a different paper. I'll make sure we have correct link.Who is Jean Tirole? - Press release: http://t.co/oZaho7oZv6 - Background: http://t.co/PUOaBGpqoW - Scientific info: http://t.co/luxLZX7JQi
Retweeted by David LeonhardtCongratulations to Jean Tirole for winning the Nobel Prize in economics. Great choice.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@ATuteur How so? Vast majority of paper is about singletons.@robenfarzad ?@jamiedupree Or if you like facts.
10/13
2014
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Federal judge strikes down Alaska's first-in-the-nation gay marriage ban.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@DLeonhardt just bad.
Retweeted by David LeonhardtDo Washington football fans consider their radio announcers to be charmingly bad or just bad?Half of all births in the U.S. are hastened by drugs or surgery, double the share in 1990. http://t.co/3pkvK7UMASGood polls for them in Alaska, Colorado and Kansas push the Republicans' odds of Senate control back to 66%. @nytleo: http://t.co/lsHyc6RCFw@DLeonhardt I would think. Not including fielding it must be less than 50%. I'd guess around 35% or so.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@DLeonhardt -- Run Production and Run Prevention are the two sides of the W% coin. Pitching is maybe ~2/3 of Prevention, so call it 35%ish.
Retweeted by David Leonhardt@tiredboredblog Not including fielding. I assume it's identical or very similar to regular season.@ThirdWayKessler @NoamNeusner I liked that move, as Twitter will confirm.Serious q: What % of winning in the postseason is actually pitching (on average)? 40? 50?That's how good managers manage: They don't wait for something to go wrong to pull a pitcher.
10/12
2014
In our rush to induce births, we seem to be hurting babies. Sunday Review: http://t.co/eFiS3fcOTA@sagarpaul69 @KevinQ @amandacox I encourage you to read the story. It deals with such variables.
10/11
2014
@PregnancyCorner Hi, P.C. We thought your readers might be interested in this NYT article and welcome comments: http://t.co/TVKBXFgtXXI was 7 lbs 0.5 oz. My sister was 7 lbs 7 oz. Which now makes more sense: http://t.co/TVKBXFgtXX@sandblowerliz Thanks for reading.Heavier babies do better in school -- which has a big health-care lesson. @amandacox's & my piece: http://t.co/sSIIXXU5A6Which means it's not crazy for Romney to take a shot in 2014/5 at filling the role.
10/10
2014
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